IMPACT OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY ON REGIONAL ECONOMIES: AN INTEGRAL METHODOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT MODEL (THE CASE OF NAVOI REGION)
Keywords:
Infrastructure investment, regional economy, gross regional product, panel regression, DEA, composite index.Abstract
The paper proposes an Integral Impact Assessment Model (IIAM) and an “Infrastructure Investment Impact Map” (IIIM) that evaluate both the efficiency and the regional impact of infrastructure investment. Using 2015–2024 data for Navoi region (Uzbekistan), fixed-effects panel regression and output-oriented VRS DEA are applied. Fixed-capital investment grew 18.5-fold to UZS 33,550 bn; transport (β=0.578) and energy (β=0.443) investments show the strongest effect on gross regional product; mean efficiency is 0.68, implying a 32% reserve. The case of Tomdi district (23.4% of investment but an impact index of 0.43) substantiates an “industrial–social imbalance paradox”. A “social guarantee minimum” mechanism and an updated model (IIAM-2) are proposed.References
1. «O‘zbekiston–2030» strategiyasi. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2023 yil 11 yanvardagi PF-22-son Farmoni.
2. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2024 yil 12 dekabrdagi PQ-430-son qarori «Navoiy viloyatini ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy rivojlantirish bo‘yicha qo‘shimcha chora-tadbirlar to‘g‘risida».
3. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Prezidentining 2026 yil 11 fevraldagi PQ-58-son qarori «2026 yilda Navoiy viloyatini barqaror ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy rivojlantirish chora-tadbirlari to‘g‘risida».
4. Aschauer D.A. Is Public Expenditure Productive? // Journal of Monetary Economics. – 1989. – Vol. 23(2). – P. 177–200.
5. Munnell A.H. Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth // Journal of Economic Perspectives. – 1992. – Vol. 6(4). – P. 189–198.
6. Barro R.J. Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth // Journal of Political Economy. – 1990. – Vol. 98(5). – P. S103–S125.
7. Calderón C., Servén L. The Effects of Infrastructure Development on Growth and Income Distribution. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3400. – Washington: World Bank, 2004.
8. Shodmonov Sh.Sh., Olimov U.V. Mintaqaviy iqtisodiyot. – Toshkent: Iqtisodiyot, 2022.
9. Xolmo‘minov R.X. Hududlarda investitsiya faolligini oshirish mexanizmlari. – Toshkent: Fan, 2021.
10. Tursunov N.T. O‘zbekistonda mintaqaviy rivojlanish muammolari. – Toshkent: Yangi nashr, 2020.
11. Estache A. A survey of impact evaluations of infrastructure projects. ECARES Working Paper 2010-005. – Brussels: ULB, 2010.
12. Ilzetzki E., Mendoza E.G., Végh C.A. How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? // Journal of Monetary Economics. – 2013. – Vol. 60(2). – P. 239–254.
13. Saaty T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. – New York: McGraw-Hill, 1980.
14. Charnes A., Cooper W.W., Rhodes E. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units // European Journal of Operational Research. – 1978. – Vol. 2(6). – P. 429–444.
15. Pereira A.M., Andraz J.M. On the Economic Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment // Journal of Economic Development. – 2013. – Vol. 38(4). – P. 1–37.
16. Petersen M.A. Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets // Review of Financial Studies. – 2009. – Vol. 22(1). – P. 435–480.
17. Nardo M., Saisana M., Saltelli A. Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators. – Paris: OECD Publishing, 2008.
18. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Davlat statistika qo‘mitasi. Hududlar bo‘yicha statistik to‘plam. – Toshkent, 2024; Navoiy viloyati hokimligi. Ijtimoiy-iqtisodiy rivojlanish yillik hisobotlari (2015–2024). – Navoiy, 2024.
19. LeSage J.P., Pace R.K. Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. – Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2009.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Ideal Journal of Multidisciplinary Research
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for any purpose, even commercially.
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
- Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
Notices:
You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or limitation.
No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity, privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.
